Crypto analysis, September 29: bonds stall Bitcoin, ETFs buy at a record pace and Ethereum flashes its first warning

September 29, 2026 · JICA LABS

This follows our September 27 technical analysis. Since then, the market has hit a brake that does not come from crypto: bonds.

What moved the market

• US bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.2%, its highest since 2007. When bonds pay that much, risk assets such as crypto lose appeal.
• Iran and oil. Trump rejected Iran's plan to end hostilities and Brent crude went back above $100.
• Liquidations. On Monday the 28th about $478 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. Bitcoin hit a low of $82,580 and closed the day at $83,479.
• But ETFs are buying. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.39 billion in the week of September 21–25, their best week since October 2025. Ethereum ETFs added $689.9 million and Solana ETFs $188.2 million.
• Strategy, Michael Saylor's company, bought another 1,665 BTC and now holds 847,666.

On Tuesday the 29th Bitcoin bounced to about $84,300 even with stocks in the red. The Fear & Greed Index reads 73 ("greed").

Bitcoin: support held

• Price: $83,479 at the September 28 close (−3.6% over 7 days); about $84,300 at the time of writing.
• Averages: still above the 20-day (80,682), 50-day (76,475) and 200-day (71,128). The uptrend remains intact.
• RSI: down from 65 to 61. It is moving away from overbought territory, which gives it room to rise again.
• MACD: 2,310 versus 2,237 for its signal. Still positive, but the gap has narrowed sharply since the 26th (2,471 vs 2,163): momentum is fading.

Reading: the pullback we anticipated arrived, but it stopped before the first support, the 80,000–80,700 zone where the 20-day average sits. As long as Bitcoin holds above it, the scenario remains a pause within an uptrend. A close below 80,000 would open the way to 76,500, the 50-day average. On the upside, resistance is still 86,597.

Ethereum: the signal we flagged

On Sunday the 27th we wrote that Ethereum's MACD was "almost touching" its signal line and that a bearish cross would be the first sign of a pullback. That cross happened: MACD is at 87 and the signal at 89. Price closed at 2,688 (about 2,735 at the time of writing), still above its 20-day (2,587), 50-day (2,403) and 200-day (2,103) averages, with RSI at 63.

Reading: the cross says bullish momentum weakened, not that the trend changed. As long as price respects the 20-day average around 2,590, consolidation is most likely. Losing it would bring the 2,400 zone into view.

Solana: on pause

It closed at 118.82 (about 120.85 now), flat on the week. Its RSI dropped from 68 to 63 and MACD equals its signal: momentum stalled after a 12.5% gain over 30 days. Support is the 20-day average around 110, and resistance is 130.

Other news worth knowing

• Bitget reopened withdrawals in phases (BTC on the 28th, ETH on the 29th, USDT on the 30th and the rest on October 2) after the $387 million theft. About $463 million in net outflows left in 24 hours, the largest daily outflow DefiLlama has recorded.
• Brazil: from October 1, authorized platforms must report to the financial intelligence unit (Coaf) any crypto transfer of $10,000 or more to or from self-custody wallets. Self-custody is not banned — it is monitored.
• Tether: a report by US Senate Democrats analyzed 846 wallets sanctioned over links to Iran and found 84% transacted in USDT. Tether says it helped freeze about $550 million tied to Iran in 2026.
• El Salvador is preparing a stablecoin app: see this note.

Conclusion

Crypto is caught between two forces: institutional money flowing in through ETFs and a hostile macro backdrop, with bond yields at nearly 20-year highs and oil above $100. Technically, trends remain up, but momentum has cooled in all three. This week's levels: 80,000 and 86,600 for Bitcoin, 2,590 and 2,775 for Ethereum, 110 and 130 for Solana.

Sources

• CoinGecko — datos de precio / price data
• Alternative.me — Crypto Fear & Greed Index
• Investing.com — Bitcoin falls to $83K amid high yields and Iran tensions
• Decrypt — Bitcoin price falls on Trump, Iran, oil and yields
• CoinDesk — Aave leads DeFi higher as crypto shrugs off surging Treasury yields
• Bitcoin.com News — Bitcoin ETFs pull $2.39 billion, best week since October 2025
• The Block — Bitget starts phased withdrawal resumption
• Crypto Briefing — Bitget sees $463M outflows after hack
• The Block — Strategy buys more bitcoin
• crypto.news — Brazil sets $10K self-custody crypto reporting rule
• CoinDesk — Senate Democrats report on Tether and Iran